Pengembangan Model Pemetaan Kepadatan Penduduk Berbasis Grid melalui Redistribusi Proporsi Luas Wilayah dan Built-up Area
Abstract
Pemetaan kepadatan penduduk berbasis administrasi masih banyak digunakan dalam analisis spasial, tetapi pendekatan ini mengasumsikan penduduk tersebar merata di seluruh wilayah administrasi. Asumsi tersebut dapat menyederhanakan variasi spasial, terutama pada wilayah yang memiliki perbedaan tutupan lahan, area terbangun, dan konsentrasi permukiman. Penelitian ini bertujuan mengembangkan dan membandingkan tiga model pemetaan kepadatan
penduduk berbasis Python, yaitu Model A berupa kepadatan administrasi, Model B berupa redistribusi penduduk berbasis proporsi luas wilayah, dan Model C berupa redistribusi penduduk berbasis luas built-up dari ESA WorldCover. Data yang digunakan meliputi batas administrasi, jumlah penduduk, grid spasial 500 m × 500 m, dan kelas built-up ESA
WorldCover. Model B dikembangkan menggunakan prinsip area-weighted interpolation, sedangkan Model C menggunakan prinsip dasymetric mapping dengan mekanisme fallback ke proporsi luas apabila built-up tidak terdeteksi. Hasil prapemrosesan menunjukkan terdapat 126 wilayah administrasi sumber dengan total penduduk 1.091.970 jiwa dan luas wilayah 183,602 km². Grid awal sebanyak 1.677 grid dipotong menjadi 853 grid analisis. Luas built-up hasil ekstraksi ESA WorldCover adalah 88,736 km² atau sekitar 48,33% dari wilayah kajian. Validasi internal menunjukkan bahwa Model B dan Model C mempertahankan total penduduk awal dengan relative error 0%. Model A menghasilkan rata-rata kepadatan 10.682,55 jiwa/km², Model B 5.827,11 jiwa/km², dan Model C 5.603,16 jiwa/km². Model C memiliki nilai minimum 0,00 jiwa/km² dan standar deviasi lebih tinggi daripada Model B, yang menunjukkan alokasi penduduk lebih selektif dan terkonsentrasi pada area built-up. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa perubahan asumsi redistribusi menghasilkan pola kepadatan yang berbeda. Model C memberikan representasi spasial yang lebih mengikuti area terbangun, tetapi tetap memerlukan validasi eksternal karena built-up bukan data hunian atau data penduduk aktual.
Kata kunci: kepadatan penduduk; redistribusi penduduk; area-weighted interpolation; dasymetric mapping; ESA WorldCover
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