Risk Analysis Of Highway Construction On Construction Step Using Monte Carlo Method Case Study: The Construction Of Trans Sumatera Highway Section 2 Sidomulyo - Kotabaru (Sta. 39+400 - Sta. 80+000)

Guritno Bagus Phambudi, Ika Kustiani, Amril Ma'ruf Siregar

Abstract


Trans Sumatera Highway is the first highway construction in the Province of Lampung. There are several risks that might happen at the construction of Trans Sumatera Highway. According to Project Management Institute, the risks that occur at the project could be controlled by managing these risk. These management processes have a purpose to find out the impact from these risk against cost, time and quality. The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the scale of the risk that could happen by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitatively, the risk were analyzed by using fishbone diagram method. A set of questionnaire, subsequently, were developed from this fishbone diagram. The questionnaire were asked to a selected respondents that comprice of key persons in the project. The result from the questionnaire were then analyzed further by using a qualitative method which was Monte Carlo through Decision Tools Suite: @RISK for Project. In brief, the data has been through a set of analysis such as Probability Risk Test, Impact Risk Test, Risk Factor Test, and Monte Carlo. Trans Sumatra Bakauheni-Terbanggi Besar Highway project section 2 Sidomulyo – Kotabaru (Sta. 39+400 – Sta. 80+000) has land acquisition as the highest risk. These risks also tested against Best Case Scenario, Most Likely Scenario and Worst Case Scenario.
Keywords: Project Management, Risk Management, Monte Carlo

Abstract

Trans Sumatera Highway is the first highway construction in the Province of Lampung. There are several risks that might happen at the construction of Trans Sumatera Highway. According to Project Management Institute, the risks that occur at the project could be controlled by managing these risk. These management processes have a purpose to find out the impact from these risk against cost, time and quality. The purpose of this research is to identify and analyze the scale of the risk that could happen by utilizing both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitatively, the risk were analyzed by using fishbone diagram method. A set of questionnaire, subsequently, were developed from this fishbone diagram. The questionnaire were asked to a selected respondents that comprice of key persons in the project. The result from the questionnaire were then analyzed further by using a qualitative method which was Monte Carlo through Decision Tools Suite: @RISK for Project. In brief, the data has been through a set of analysis such as Probability Risk Test, Impact Risk Test, Risk Factor Test, and Monte Carlo. Trans Sumatra Bakauheni-Terbanggi Besar Highway project section 2 Sidomulyo – Kotabaru (Sta. 39+400 – Sta. 80+000) has land acquisition as the highest risk. These risks also tested against Best Case Scenario, Most Likely Scenario and Worst Case Scenario.
Keywords: Project Management, Risk Management, Monte Carlo

References


Astiti, N. P. M., 2014, Analisis Risiko Pelaksanaan Pembangunan Jalan Tol Benoa- Bandara-Nusa Dua, Thesis: Universitas Udayana.

Karunia, M. N., 2012., Analisis Risiko Keterlambatan Waktu Pada Proyek (Studi Kasus : Pembangunan Jalan Tol Trans Sumatera Bakauheni – Terbanggi Besar (Paket II Sidomulyo – Kotabaru Sta. 39+400 – Sta. 80+000) dan (Paket III Kotabaru – Metro Sta. 80+000 – Sta. 109+000))), Skripsi: Universitas Lampung.

Kusnadi, E., 2011, Fishbone Diagram dan Langkah – Langkah Pembuatannya, Eris Kusnadi (blog), Diakses dari https://eriskusnadi.wordpress.com/2011/12/24/fishbone-diagram-dan-langkahlangkah-pembuatannya/, diakses pada tanggal 30 April 2017.

PMI, 2013, A Guide to the project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide)-Fifth Edition, USA : Project Management Institute, Inc.

Sugiyono, 2004, Statistika untuk Penelitian, Bandung : Penerbit Alfabeta.

Zulfiqar, M., 2015, Analisis Risiko Pembangunan Jalan Tol Pada Tahap Konstruksi (Studi Kasus Jalan Tol Pekanbaru-Dumai), Thesis: Universitas Riau.


Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


ISSN: 2303-0011